Contrary to Robinson’s novel, India alone cannot cause global cooling. If the plumes spread over southern India, the rotation of the earth causes them to spread in a ring around the earth. From this point, the atmospheric system known as Brewer-Dobson circulation takes these materials to the North Pole and finally they land there and only lead to the cooling of the Northern Hemisphere. On the other hand, the implementation of this project in the southern hemisphere is very important; Because some kind of balance should be created in the distribution of weather systems. Therefore, it is unlikely that a single rogue state can do this alone for long.
Predicting side effects
However, if an advanced power acquires geoengineering technology in the future, this does not mean that it will. Regardless of feasibility, this project can slow down the process of reducing fossil fuel emissions. In addition, other environmental risks will follow.
So can scientists predict the environmental consequences of geoengineering? According to models and simulations published so far, the injection of stratospheric jets can affect everything from the position of the jet stream to the creation of regional droughts. According to other studies, this project can lead to the loss of Arctic sea ice and a significant reduction in monsoon rains. Finally, if such a project is implemented continuously, it can also affect agricultural products.
One of the potential damages of solar geoengineering can be damage to the earth’s protective ozone layer. According to the 2022 UNEP report, there are deficiencies in solar geoengineering modeling; Because this technology does not provide any solution to prevent the increase in carbon dioxide concentration caused by ocean acidification.
How bad can the effects of geoengineering be? Examples such as gases emitted from rockets to volcanic eruptions can be used to learn about the possible effects of intentional injection of emissions, but the different properties of different emissions such as sulfate, soot, organic carbon, and metal will certainly have different effects. Also, the aforementioned consequences are dependent on the height, position, time and volume of the material spread.
Of course, there is no comparable case for continuous emission of matter. Also, we do not have complete knowledge about the interaction of different parts of the climate system. As a result, we are facing many uncertainties.
