In the last 12 months, between the months of November 2022 (November 1401) and October 2023 (October 1402), the world witnessed an increase in the average global temperature by 1.32 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average; That is, 0.03 degrees Celsius more than the previous record that was recorded between October 2015 and September 2016. Researchers say this is the hottest temperature the planet has experienced in about 125,000 years.
A group of researchers, based on surface temperature data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, They analyzed the average air temperature. They found that the main driver of this global warming is global warming due to the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Attributing the exact amount of warming to various factors is challenging. to report New ScientistResearchers say that about 1.28 degrees Celsius of the average temperature rise can be attributed to climate change. They also found that most of the remaining warming of this amount can be attributed to changes in the warm weather pattern of the El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean in June. Only a very small fraction of this 1.32°C is due to natural variability.
Also, researchers used climate models to compare the probability of extreme heat observed in different countries around the world, excluding and including the effect of human-caused climate change. They found that during the study period, about 90 percent of the world’s population was exposed to at least 10 days of extreme heat, which has increased significantly due to climate change. Nearly two billion people experienced at least one five-day period of extreme heat, at least twice as likely to be caused by climate change.
Joyce Kimotai “This extreme heat really affects every human being on the planet, and it hits the most vulnerable the hardest,” says the Kenya Meteorological Agency.
In addition to the current study, a series of studies from the past year also show that most of the extreme weather events seen around the world can be attributed in part to climate change: from wildfires in Canada to droughts in East Africa.
The developing El Niño event is not expected to peak for several months, but researchers note that the next 12 months are likely to be even warmer; The average air temperature is likely to reach more than 1.4 degrees Celsius higher than the average temperature before industrial development. Previous predictions indicated that in 2024, the average global temperature will even exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius.